Among the documents allegedly pilfered by Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) analyst Leandro Aragoncillo, given to former Philippine National Police Senior Supt. Michael Ray Aquino, and ultimately sent to Philippine officials, was an intelligence assessment on the Philippine political situation.

The report, prepared by former U.S. Charge d’Affairs Joseph Mussomeli, was entitled, “Philippines: Leaders in Jeopardy; Is Arroyo a Long-Term Lameduck?”

The report stated that “(Vice President Noli) De Castro told us he believed there was circumstantial evidence of PGMA’s involvement in the alleged election fraud scandal” during the May 2004 elections. The De Castro-Mussomeli conversation took place in early July 2005.

The span of 13 days, between June 27 to July 10, 2005, was the stormiest in the life of the presidency of Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. The stormy span almost broke her; it did not. Not yet, or, probably, it never will.

During those 13 fateful days, President Arroyo suffered the worst buffeting in her political career, losing the trust of majority of Filipinos in her integrity as a person, the legitimacy of her presidency, and her capacity to lead the nation.

On July 8, the social survey group Pulse Asia released the results of their nationwide survey called “The 2005 National Survey on Quality of Life and Contemporary Governance.”

Among the highlights of the survey results: Less than one-fourth (22 percent) of Filipinos believed Gloria Arroyo actually won the 2004 elections; more than half (52 percent) believed she was involved in manipulating the vote count; while majority of Filipinos (56 percent) say she should not continue to serve as president. It was a clear crisis of legitimacy.

A high majority of Filipinos (90 percent) believed senior government officials were involved in the illegal numbers game called “jueteng.” A huge majority (78 percent) believed that members of President Arroyo’s family were involved in and benefited from illegal gambling. That undermined critically the moral ascendancy of Arroyo to continue leading the nation.

In the face of all these, the nation was confused. The confusion was reflected in the indecision as to how the crisis of leadership should be resolved. Pulse Asia provided a number of scenarios from which the respondents were to choose what should be best for the country.

A small number (22 percent) believed that the most beneficial political scenario for the country then was for President Arroyo to stay and complete her term up to 2010; while less than one-fifth (16 percent) believed she should stay only until a change to a parliamentary-federal form of government will have been effected.

Given the problems besetting the presidency, a sizeable majority (61 percent) thought that the best interest of the nation would be for President Arroyo not to remain in office — either she resigned or be impeached.

The stormy span almost broke Arroyo. Many believed the storm would blow her out of Malacañang. It did not. Probably, it never will.

Political observers are one in the belief that if Gloria Arroyo successfully clung to the presidency despite the odds against her it was because of one simple fact: there was and still is no clear and convincing alternative to Gloria Arroyo.

Political observers say the reason it is taking the splintered opposition a hard and long time to mount the concerted mass action that would drive beleaguered President Gloria Arroyo from office is Vice President Noli de Castro, her constitutional successor.

Driving Arroyo from the presidency means installing De Castro in her place. That does not sit well, either with the opposition, or with the business, professional and Church leaders.

In the same Pulse Asia survey released early July, not one of the perceived alternative leaders gathered enough popular support. Vice President Noli de Castro got a mere 30 percent; former President Joseph Estrada, 19 percent; and Sen. Panfilo Lacson, 16 percent.

The other alternative presented by a group of retired generals — a Transitional Governing Council — made a lot of people uneasy and scared.

President Arroyo herself described the predicament of the opposition before a group of Phil-American visitors in mid-July: “All my enemies are offering is a road that leads nowhere.” She was correct there.

Opposition Sen. Aquilino Pimentel has belittled De Castro’s “prospective presidency” by saying the Vice President has failed to establish a presence and an identity separate from that of Arroyo.

Actress Susan Roces, widow of defeated and deceased presidential candidate Fernando Poe Jr., in an interview on June 29 demanded the resignation of both Arroyo and De Castro.

Commenting on the widow’s call, the broadcaster who became vice president through the sheer power of the mass media said: “Why should I resign? I did not cheat the elections.”

It was lost on De Castro that his statement, by implication, meant that somebody else cheated. That and even for that alone — for that lack of tact and taste — people say he cannot be the alternative to Arroyo.

Lack of tact and taste.

Even as the besieged President closeted herself in Malacañang in early July, Noli de Castro was reported to have visited deposed President Joseph Estrada in his sickbed at the Cardinal Santos Memorial Hospital. When asked why he went to see Estrada — the figurehead of the opposition against the Arroyo government — Noli de Castro attempted to dispel the doubts the visit created with an inane explanation that it was a “social visit because Estrada is my friend.”

That same week, media traced Noli de Castro’s footsteps to the doors of former President Cory Aquino and Manila Archbishop Gaudencio Rosales, the late Jaime Cardinal Sin’s successor to both Church power and political influence. A national daily described Noli de Castro’s “social visits” as a conference to secure the blessings of the “kingmakers.”

Malacañang was quick to stifle suspicions that the Vice President was dissociating himself from Arroyo and positioning himself as the man who would be president. Said Presidential spokesman Ignacio Bunye: “Vice President Noli de Castro is loyal to President Gloria Arroyo.”

The Mussomeli report belies Bunye and contradicts the confidence of Malacañang.

The Philippine situation is classic Perry Mason.

The country is baffled and bedeviled by “The Case of the Missing Alternative.”

(Editor’s note: For comments and reactions, e-mail: rene_bartolo@yahoo.com )