The Filipino Reporter

ON MY OWN
By Libertito Pelayo

GMA stocks shoot up
from visit of pal Bush

IF there’s no golden rule in politics, and likely not, we’ll make one up: Whoever has the gold, rules. Put it another way. Whoever is in power, and decides to keep the throne by running, wins.

Under the equity-of-the-incumbent theory, President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo is a heavy favorite in the 2004 presidential race. She has already one foot in the door. All she needs is another one to stay in Malacañang for a full six-year term.

But Philippine politics being what it is, there’s no such thing as a sure winner. GMA’s father, President Diosdado Macapagal, the Poor Boy from Lubao (Pampanga), was defeated in his reelection bid by Sen. Ferdinand Marcos in the Nov. 9, 1965 election.

Technically, GMA is no reelectionist; she’s only serving the unfinished term of President Joseph Estrada who was driven from office by what is rhapsodized as EDSA Dos, or People Power No. 2. Her ascension into power was legally challenged but the Supreme Court, which played a leading role in the bloodless coup, upheld her hurried oath-taking.

In December last year, she stunned the nation when she announced she would not run in 2004. Despite heckling and egging from many places, she held en pectore (close to the heart) her political intentions. But late last month, she abruptly changed course and said, not unexpectedly, yes, she would run in 2004.

The news jolted both the administration party and the opposition. Alignments were realigned and the vaunted political coalition crumbled like a house of cards.

Providentially, President George W. Bush came calling in Manila last week, and GMA partisans took to the rooftops, proclaiming that Bush was in her corner, without saying it outright, but simply by showing up. Her standing in the popularity scale, very much in decline before the visit, went up several notches.

If the elections were held today, GMA will be a shoo-in. But the elections are still a good six months away. Anything can happen between now and election day.

If the opposition will rally around one official candidate, GMA will be in deep trouble. But the opposition will never be united. Already, three names are being bandied around.

One of them, Sen. Panfilo “Ping” Lacson, has all but openly declared his bid. Ferdinand Poe Jr. is playing coy while business tycoon Eduardo “Danding” Cojuangco seems to savor his complete control of San Miguel Corp. after the government withdrew its sequestered shares. He may not risk another poll wallop he received in 1992.

It is speculated that Danding might have struck a modus vivendi with GMA over San Miguel and his dropping from the presidential derby in exchange for a hefty contribution to the GMA campaign chest.

Her former ally turned critic and presidential contender, Raul S. Roco, is no direct threat although previous surveys placed him at the top of presidentiables but only because he was the first to announce his bid. Roco is simpatico to young voters but he has no machinery or an attention-grabbing platform.

What does our crystal ball tell us about the 2004 poll?

It will be a horse race, with GMA ahead at the starting gate, especially in a three-way or four-way contest.

bpelayo@aol.com

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